European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Mochan, A., Farinha, J., Bailey, G., Rodriguez, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.

European Commission, Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (CNECT), 2024.

A study commissioned by the European Commission highlights the significant potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to improve public sector services across the EU. The report emphasizes that AI can enhance citizen-government interactions, boost analytical capabilities, and increase efficiency in key areas such as healthcare, mobility, e-Government, and education. These sectors are identified as among the most ready for large-scale AI deployment, with applications ranging from autonomous vehicles and smart traffic systems to AI-driven healthcare solutions and education technologies.

Schmitz, A., Schade, B., Garaffa, R., Keramidas, K., Dowling, P. et al., Clean Energy Technology Observatory, Impacts of enhanced learning for clean energy technologies on global energy system scenarios – Energy system modelling for clean energy technology scenarios, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/5626925

This study examines the impacts of enhancing technology progress in clean energy technologies on the global energy system and economy. The analysis focuses on eight thematic technology groups, including wind, solar, batteries, hydrogen and fuel cells, carbon capture, direct air capture and synfuels, biofuels, and heat pumps. Two policy scenarios are considered: a 2°C scenario with stringent carbon policies and a Reference scenario driven primarily by market forces.

Szkola, S. and Williquet, F., The Community digital compass, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7062939

Communities play a critical role in bridging the gap between policy and people, and knowledge and action. Yet digital community platforms often fail to meet real-world needs. This report identifies four challenges fragmented platform ecosystems, trustworthy human interaction, digital skills gaps, and over-engineered tools and offers guidance to offer human-centered public community services. Included are 39 platform selection questions and game cards in the areas of access, platform ambitions, engagement, user experience, integrations, security and privacy, and budget as well as scoping tools and checklists designed to help policymakers and community leaders select the right digital solutions. These materials enable decision-makers to understand and explore both the social and technical dimensions of platform design, align policy and IT perspectives, and define community management functions through detailed feature exploration.

Pérez Domínguez, I., Barbosa, A. L., Fellmann, T., Weiss, F., Hristov, J. et al., Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture – Interactions between the agriculture,forestry and other land use sectors – EcAMPA 4, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/2935247

The European Climate Law mandates the European Union’s climate neutrality objectives by 2050, aligning with the European Green Deal and interim greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors play a crucial role due to their dual function in sequestering carbon and emitting GHGs. This report assesses the potential contribution of the AFOLU sectors to the EU's 2050 targets using CAPRI model scenarios. Recent model enhancements enable a more integrated analysis of GHG emissions and carbon removals, allowing for a detailed assessment of land-based mitigation options.

European Committee of the Regions, European Committee of the Regions, 2024.

Strategic foresight is a future-oriented discipline that seeks to understand, anticipate, and address emerging challenges and opportunities, through systematic and structured identification and analysis of long-term trends, drivers of change, and potential disruptive developments that may shape the political, economic, social, and technological landscape. It is not about predicting the future; it is about exploring different possible futures that could arise, in order to better prepare for change.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Environment, White, O., Sadauskis, R., Geraci, M., Garnett, K. et al., Emerging environmental and other issues impacting our ability to achieve a water-resilient Europe by 2050 – Final report of 2022-2023 annual cycle, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2779/598202

Each year FORENV – the EU Foresight System for Emerging Environmental Issues – identifies and characterises 10 priority emerging issues of potential importance to the European environment and environmental policy. In its fifth cycle (2022-23) FORENV explored emerging environmental and other issues impacting our ability to achieve a water-resilient Europe by 2050. This focus of FORENV was to inform thinking and discussion for policies to support water resilience and associated uncertainties.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services and Pataki, Z. G., EU capabilities in space – Scenarios for space security by 2050, European Parliament, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2861/9331267

Space holds promise for both economic prosperity and the attainment of strategic goals. The EU's future role in space is contingent on fast-changing geopolitical dynamics, which can range from peaceful cooperation to heightened competition or conflict among global powers. Given the importance of this subject, the European Commission has announced plans to propose an EU space act in the second quarter of 2025. This paper aims to describe the geopolitical context of space activities that affect the EU's current and future capabilities, with a specific focus on the use of space for security and defence and the response to space-related risks. Four distinct future scenarios present contextual conditions that may shape the EU's ambitions in space. The scenarios also highlight challenges and opportunities, while considering policy considerations for EU action.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Structural Reform Support, ICF, Mackie, I., Cepiku, D., Fobé, E. et al., Evidence-informed Policy Making (EIPM) – Country case studies, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2887/585638

This report builds on the 2021 study on evidence-informed policy making (EIPM) for SG REFORM. Both reports are based on the notion that accessing and applying science-based knowledge improves the quality of the policy process, within the context of other forces that shape policy debates and decisions, such as values, ideologies, public preconceptions and expectations, and ultimately political judgements. This study focuses on EIPM ecosystems: the nexus of relations and connections between policy makers, knowledge generators, and the boundary organisations that bring them together through liaison, coordination, forums, financing and other instruments.

Keizer, A.-G., Almeida, M., Deligkiaouri, A., Gadzina-Kołodziejska, A., Kock, E. et al., Evidence-informed policymaking – A pathway to increasing trust in democratic institutions and boosting competitiveness, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/3905455

The project ‘Building capacity for evidence-informed policymaking in governance and public administration in a post-pandemic Europe’ was inspired by the need of Member States to respond to complex policy issues requiring specialised knowledge, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic led to a widespread recognition in governments that the use of evidence in advising policy is vital but has not been as effective as necessary. Meanwhile political agendas have shifted in the past two years towards geopolitical threats, competitiveness, misinformation and democratic upheaval. Societal challenges are huge, while trust in national governments has declined in many countries over recent years. This erosion of trust leads to a decreased ability to deal with these problems in a publicly supported way.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Peter, V., Zeqo, K., Frantz, F., Veen, G. v. d. et al., Evolution and/or disruption – Designing the next Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, European Parliament, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2861/1147286

This study explores the design of future Framework Programmes for Research and Innovation (R&I) in the European Union. Employing a foresight methodology – comprising a literature review, case studies, scenarios and foresight workshops with stakeholders – the study examines prevailing discourses on Framework Programme structures, identifies key R&I trends, and analyses the challenges posed by current developments. It presents a set of hypothetical programme structures alongside policy recommendations to optimise the Framework Programme for fostering effective R&I across the EU.

European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Mattioli, R. and Malatras, A., European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, 2024.

The “ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030” study represents a comprehensive analysis and assessment of emerging cybersecurity threats projected for the year 2030. This collaborative endeavour, spearheaded by European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), has employed a structured and multidimensional methodology to assess, forecast, and prioritise potential threats. It was firstly published in 2022, and the current report is its second iteration which reassesses the previously identified top ten threats and respective trends whilst exploring the developments over the course of a year. Our aim was to reassess the results of the Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030, identify potential new trends/threats and understand how the previous trends developed over the course of the year.

European Commission: European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, F&S, IPSOS, POSEIDON, Tetra Tech, Davies, M., Macfadyen, G., Brugere, C., Chiarelli, N., Dale, F.Caillart, B., Foresight study on fishers of the future – Final report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2926/3984926

The study represents the Commission’s commitment, outlined in its 2023 Communication on the functioning of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), to address emerging challenges in the sector. It aligns with the Commission's definition of foresight as “the discipline of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future to inform today’s decision-making.” This participatory study places fishers at its core, integrating their perspectives into the development of future scenarios and fisher profiles to inform strategic policymaking for a sustainable, competitive and resilient EU fishing sector, as part of the wider blue economy. It does not present policy proposals, which was never the intention, rather it serves to stimulate further the important debate on securing and giving a perspective on the future of EU fishers.

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and European Food Safety Authority, Future challenges for infectious disease prevention and control – A strategic foresight approach to enhance European public health preparedness and resilience, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2900/4488147

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) initiated an elaborate multi-method strategic foresight process in early 2022 to consider and prepare for a broad array of potential future scenarios, in order to improve ECDC’s preparedness and resilience to future threats. This was in recognition of the volatility and complexity of the dynamic systems surrounding public health. By identifying priorities for public health preparedness, research, training and workforce development, the project intends to inform long-term public health planning within ECDC itself, within the EU public health policy arena and by other stakeholders.

European Institute for Gender Equality, Future issues and trends in gender equality – A foresight guide by EIGE, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2839/9291576

The primary aim of this guide is to support a diverse audience, including researchers, activists, policymakers and others working to advance gender equality. It seeks to connect the worlds of academic futures studies, corporate strategic foresight and a more critical tradition, feminist-informed foresight, offering practical tools and methods for integrating futures thinking into a wide range of gender equality initiatives and contexts.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Bas, E., Barker, K., Claus, C., McHugh, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This policy brief aims to assist policy makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.

Navajas Cawood, E., Abendroth-Dias, K., Arias Cabarcos, P., Kotsev, A., Bacco, M. et al., Generative AI outlook report – Exploring the intersection of technology, society, and policy, Navajas Cawood, E.(editor), Kotsev, A.(editor), Van Bavel, R.(editor) and Vespe, M.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/1109679

This Outlook report, prepared by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), examines the transformative role of Generative AI (GenAI) with a specific emphasis on the European Union. It highlights the potential of GenAI for innovation, productivity, and societal change. GenAI is a disruptive technology due to its capability of producing human-like content at an unprecedented scale. As such, it holds multiple opportunities for advancements across various sectors, including healthcare, education, science, and creative industries. At the same time, GenAI also presents significant challenges, including the possibility to amplify misinformation, bias, labour disruption, and privacy concerns.

European Parliament, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This fourth ESPAS Global Trends Report is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the future of Europe, its role in the world and its ability to adapt and change to meet fresh challenges and harness new opportunities. In common with other foresight studies, this report does not predict the future. Rather, it attempts to identify the key global trends, analyse their significance for Europe, assess the agency the European Union has to influence global thinking, and sets out some of the main strategic choices policymakers may be required to make — choices that will have a strong bearing on the kind of Europe we will live in by 2040. The report does not seek to offer policy prescriptions, nor does it approach the challenges we face through a particular political prism. Importantly, it does not represent the views or policies of any particular organisation involved in the process.

European Environment Agency, Governance in complexity – Sustainability governance under highly uncertain and complex conditions, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024

The triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution is just one of many interconnected and mutually exacerbating socio‑economic crises currently challenging European and global societies. These accelerated and deeply interconnected crises challenge the conventional approach to governance in several ways. Firstly, previously well‑tested and effective tools and practices of problem‑solving are less suited to providing systemic solutions. This is demonstrated by the lack of progress towards sustainability: European policies have yet to produce more than mixed progress towards the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Similarly, the outlook for reaching the EU's long‑term vision of 'living well within the limits of the planet' is not encouraging. Secondly, failing to acknowledge and absorb the many different understandings of complex problems — and the inherent difficulties of governing multi‑faceted and systemic challenges — weakens the legitimacy of any transition toward sustainability. This can strain societal stability and cohesion, as is visible in several parts of Europe already.

European Environment Agency, Imagining a sustainable Europe in 2050 – Exploring implications for core production and consumption systems, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2800/4293606

To turn the EU′s long-term vision of ′living well, within environmental limits′ by 2050 into a reality, fundamental changes need to be made to the production and consumption systems that deliver on Europe′s demand for energy, food, mobility and shelter. In this context, collectively reflecting on desirable futures helps instil hope and guide action.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Lazarou, E., Bassot, E. and Stanicek, B., European Parliament, 2024.

Conflict is rarely confined to the geographical space in which wars take place. The increasingly global effects – human, material and political – of wars and conflicts make a view of the level of threats to peace, security and democracy around the world more important than ever. The 'Normandy Index' has presented an annual measurement of these threats since the 2019 Normandy Peace Forum. The results of the 2024 exercise suggest the level of threats to peace is the highest since the Index began, confirming declining trends in global security resulting from conflict, geopolitical rivalry, growing militarisation and hybrid threats. The findings of the 2024 exercise draw on data compiled in 2023-2024 to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's performance against a range of predetermined threats – across countries and regions.

Mochan, A., Farinha, J., Bailey, G., Rodriguez, L. and Polvora, A., Mobilising the future – Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of mobility, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/9064824

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and break-through INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies.

European Committee of the Regions: Commission for Natural Resources, Maj, A., Wiktorow-Bojska, A. and Zubel, K., European Committee of the Regions, 2024.

Climate change is a key dominant trend across the territories of the European Union (EU) given the expected growing frequency of multiple climate change-induced hazards. Serious impacts on ecosystems, the economy, and human health and well-being will be observed as a result. Minimising the risks and impacts stemming from these extremes is therefore a priority for the EU, and for national and Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs).

Galmarini, S., Roman Cuesta, R. M., Dentener, F., Ruiz Moreno, A., Alessi, L. et al., Raising awareness of Earth system tipping points – Implications for EU governance – Workshop report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/9047293

Tipping points are critical thresholds in many nonlinear dynamic systems. When reached, the system moves to an irreversible and self-sustained reorganization into a new equilibrium. As the world rapidly approaches 1.5°C of global warming, the risk of triggering catastrophic Earth System tipping points (ESTP) is escalating – a problem compounded by the present weakening around climate action. The broaching of ESTPs would have severe regional and global impacts on ecosystems, climate, and economy, and pose a significant new security threat to European societies.

European Union Institute for Security Studies, Rühlig, T. and Teer, J., Resilience by design – A new EU foreign economic policy to counter global disorder, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2815/4213861

The pledge to develop a new foreign economic policy sits at the heart of the European Commission’s Political Guidelines published in July 2024. This ambition has become even more pressing in light of US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy, signalling a disruptive shift in global economic relations. The new Trump administration’s stated aim is to bring back manufacturing jobs, rebuild the US industrial base, and onshore a broad range of critical value chains. At the core of this agenda is a single guiding principle: reindustrialisation. Trump 2.0’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ could lead even more EU companies to move production to the US. Another consequence could be a surge in highly subsidised Chinese exports flooding global markets.